BRN 9-3 - Flipbook - Page 20
theories of vision and argued that
investigators must be guided by
demonstration rather than deference.
Scholars such as al-Biruni advanced
careful measurement and attention to
observational error, and Ibn Sina
outlined rules for testing treatments
that anticipate key elements of
controlled, reproducible evaluation.Ó
(Science, February 26, 2026)
Probably
Do Homo sapiens and Large
Language Models (LLMs) mean the
same thing when they say
ÒprobablyÓ? Apparently not. This is a
big thing. In ÒAn evaluation of
estimative uncertainty in large
language models" Z. Tang, K. Shen,
and M. Kejriwal (npj Complexity, 3, 8,
2026, https://doi.org/10.1038/
s44260-026-00070-6) found that we
(Homo sapiens) should exercise some
caution in this linguistic arena.
A LLM (kimi) summarized the issues
this way:
ÒImplications: The study reveals
a "communicative misalignment"
between humans and LLMs: when an
LLM says "likely" (meaning ~90%)
and a human hears "likely" (meaning
~60-70%), trust and decision-making
break down. This is critical for highstakes applications (medicine, policy,
intelligence) where LLMs are
increasingly used to paraphrase
scientiÞc Þndings or communicate
risk.
ÒLimitations (of the study): The
human baseline came from a speciÞc
survey demographic (mostly young,
educated, English-speaking males).
Additionally, LLM outputs represent
elicited behavior under speciÞc
prompting conditions, not necessarily
internal ÒbeliefsÓ.
ÒIn short: LLMs can approximate
human uncertainty language for
extreme probabilities but struggle
with the nuanced, context-dependent
middle range where most real-world
communication occurs.Ó
As Jon Barnes noted, ÒYes, the irony
of the robot summary is intended, but
even worse, it is helpful.Ó
The Glow of a Tanager
In our last issue we discussed the
layered colors of Tanagers,
referencing the Western Tanager in
part. Gordon Berman shared
photographs (above) of that species
feeding on insects on a ßowering
Yucca parryi.
The array of shades of yellow and red
is wonderful.
19
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